Ok, I know a second post took a while but here it is.

The big news this weekend, of course, is the capture of Saddam Hussein. There are two big questions in the news right now. The first is what he will disclose in questioning; and the second is where should he be tried.

Any reporting on what he will tell his questioners is, obviously, pure speculation. It is reasonable to suspect that he has information about how Iraq was run prior to the war (he was it's ruler after all). He may choose to talk and give accurate answers, he may choose to talk and give false answers, or he may choose to remain silent.

The issue of his trial is linked to what he says in questioning. His refusal to cooperate will probably lead him to be turned over to the Iraqis for a quick trial and then an execution.

What is more intriguing is the possibility that he will choose to talk in a bargain for his life. This would be very similar to the kind of plea bargain serial killer Gary Ridgeway (aka the Green River Killer) recently cut with the King County Prosecutor. Such a deal would presumably require Saddam to give verifiably correct answers and agree to withhold nothing in questioning.

A deal of this kind could be very tempting to the coalition. Saddam may be able to disclose the location of any weapons of mass destruction. He could reveal secret deals with other governments. He could sell out terrorist networks. The list of possible benefits goes on from there.

The coalition should not make such a deal, however. The benefits of Saddam's cooperation would be temporary. The benefits of executing him after a public trial would be much longer lasting.

It is pretty much a given that the goal of the United States is to transform the Arabic Middle East into a more moderate, secular democratic society. The idea is that modernity will eliminate the sociological forces that produce terrorism in general and attacks on the United States specifically.

The two biggest losers in this new Arabic Middle East are the corrupt political elites that run the countries in the region, and the extremist religious figures who incite the masses. The first group wants nothing to do with democracy and the second group wants nothing to do with a secular society.

Allowing Saddam to plea bargain out of a death sentence would only make it harder to push out the corrupt political elites. They would reasonably conclude that the worst that could happen to them if they voluntarily let loose their power would be execution by a angry mob. If the held on to power until pushed out, however, they could still personally survive.

If Saddam is executed, however, the calculus changes. The corrupt elites see that holding on to power could lead to early death. Cooperating with reform could lead to comfortable retirement. Consider the point of view of the Baathists in Syria or the many Saudi princes.

We should think of the next few years and decades, not weeks and months, and make no deals with Saddam.

- posted by Thomas @ 8:38 PM